Memory Shortage Reaches Shop Shelves as Korea Pledges New Fabs
· TexaHub · Semiconductors, Regional Tech Ecosystems, Risks & Opportunities
Apple and Microsoft raised device prices, Micron posted record profits and Korea unveiled a $518 billion fab plan in a week that showed how deep the memory squeeze runs.
The week prices moved
On 25 June Apple raised prices across most of its Mac, iPad and home product lines while leaving the iPhone unchanged for now [1]. The base MacBook Air rose from $1,099 to $1,299, the base MacBook Pro from $1,699 to $1,999, the Mac Studio from $1,999 to $2,499 and the iPad Pro from $999 to $1,199 [1]. Lower-priced lines were not spared: the iPad Air went from $599 to $749, the base iPad from $349 to $449 and the HomePod mini from $99 to $129 [1]. Apple gave a direct explanation: "The rapid expansion of AI data centers has created an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage" [1].
The same day Microsoft said Xbox console prices will increase worldwide from 1 August, with 512GB models rising by $100 and 1TB models by $150; the Xbox Series X 1TB disc edition moves from $649 to $800 [2]. Microsoft attributed the increases to rising memory and console storage prices, "with costs more than 2.5x higher than previous levels" [2].
Neither move came without warning. When Apple reported record quarterly revenue of $111.2 billion at the end of April, Tim Cook said the company expected "significantly higher memory costs" in June and beyond [3]. Cook also said there was "just a little less flexibility in the supply chain at the moment for getting more parts" [3]. Analyst Tarun Pathak, quoted after the June increases, said "memory prices have increased more than fourfold since Q4 2025" [1].
Component data had pointed the same way for months. TechCrunch, citing Counterpoint Research figures from March, reported that smartphone DRAM prices jumped 50% and NAND flash prices more than 90% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2026 [1]. On the iPhone, TechCrunch reported that Tim Cook has pointed to constraints in processing chips rather than memory [1].
Where the squeeze comes from
TrendForce's June research describes a supply base that is being pulled towards AI products at the expense of everything else. Major memory suppliers are prioritising capacity for high-value products such as HBM and advanced 3D NAND, which has created bottlenecks in mature-node production [4]. As a result, the firm says NOR Flash contract prices rose by an average of 100–120% in the first half of 2026 and SLC NAND by 130–150%, with further rises of 60–65% and 70–75% respectively projected for the second half [4].
The effect now reaches legacy DRAM. TrendForce expects DDR2 contract prices to rise 55–60% in the second quarter and a further 35–40% in the third, and reports that some OEMs and ODMs are downgrading memory specifications, replacing DDR4 with DDR3 and DDR3 with DDR2, in order to secure larger allocations [5]. Taiwanese suppliers Nanya and Winbond are gaining pricing leverage, Winbond is gradually exiting DDR2 to focus on higher-margin products, and ESMT is expanding DDR2 capacity at PSMC to fill the gap [5]. In the firm's words, "structural tightening in mature-node DRAM supply is forcing consumer DRAM buyers to adopt legacy memory products" [5].
The pressure is not limited to memory. TrendForce reported on 30 June that foundry prices rose across the board between the first and second quarters, with average increases of 5% to 15%, as TSMC and Samsung reduce mature-node capacity and reallocate it to AI-related parts such as power management chips, power devices and interposers [6]. The top ten foundries' 8-inch utilisation reached 88% and is expected to hit 90% in the second half, according to the firm [6]. It said further mature-node price increases in 2027 "are likely to be difficult to avoid" [6].
Suppliers are also changing how they ration output. TrendForce notes that allocation is increasingly handled through long-term agreements rather than price alone [4], which tends to favour buyers large enough to sign multi-year contracts over smaller consumer-electronics brands.
Micron's windfall
The supplier side of the ledger is visible in Micron's results. TechCrunch reported that Micron's fiscal third-quarter revenue reached $41.45 billion, roughly four times the year-earlier figure, with profit of $28.2 billion against $1.88 billion a year before, and that the company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $49–51 billion [7]. The shares closed at $1,132 on 26 June, a 236% rise in a month, valuing the company at about $1.27 trillion, after briefly passing Meta and Tesla in market value [7]. The stock had traded below $100 until mid-2025 [7].
Micron has signed 16 long-term supply agreements across data-centre, consumer and automotive customers, including Nvidia and Anthropic, according to the same report [7]. William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji said "we see potential for more durable earnings growth" and reiterated an Outperform rating, and TechCrunch noted that industry analysts expect the shortage to persist into 2027 [7]. We were not able to verify Micron's figures against its own release for this report, so they are cited here as reported.
Korea's answer: capacity, years out
On 29 June South Korea set out the largest supply response so far. At a presidential briefing, the plan allotted $518 billion (about 800 trillion won) for Samsung and SK Hynix to build four new memory fabs in the country's southwest, plus $52 billion for an HBM packaging hub in the central region [8]. A further $356 billion (550 trillion won) is earmarked for AI data centres to be built by groups including SK, GS and Naver through 2035, taking total commitments by Korean companies to more than $900 billion [8].
Company-level figures are larger still. Samsung said it plans to invest 2,655 trillion won over the next decade, with 425 trillion won earmarked for the Honam region, and cited power, water, workforce and living-condition incentives in choosing Gwangju for a new semiconductor fab and Haenam for an AI data centre [8]. SK Group announced a 2,100 trillion won medium- to long-term roadmap, with 1,100 trillion won for semiconductor capacity and 1,000 trillion won for AI data centres, and SK Telecom will lead the build-out of 15 gigawatts of AI data-centre capacity [8]. President Lee Jae Myung called semiconductors, physical AI and AI data centres "the triple axis for South Korea's next industrial era" [8].
These are plans, not output. New memory fabs take years to build and qualify, and none of the announced capacity addresses the shortages TrendForce describes for the second half of 2026. The announcement also bundles chips with data centres that will themselves consume memory, so in the near term it adds to demand as well as promising future supply.
Buyers move upstream
The largest AI buyers are responding by getting closer to the chipmakers. On 2 July TechCrunch, citing The Information and Reuters, reported that Anthropic is in discussions with Samsung on a custom AI chip, though the chip's purpose and specifications have not been decided [9]. Anthropic said it had "nothing further to add" and that a diversified hardware stack including chips from Google, Amazon and Nvidia would remain pivotal to its compute strategy [9]. The report came about a week after OpenAI disclosed its custom inference processor, Jalapeño, built with Broadcom [9]. Samsung already manufactures chips for Nvidia and is working on an AI chip factory in South Korea, which gives it a position few memory suppliers can match: it can offer a customer both foundry capacity and memory [9].
Those moves sit alongside Micron's long-term agreement with Anthropic [7] and point to the same conclusion: in a rationed market, the buyers that secure supply are the ones willing to commit capital and volume years ahead. Consumer brands, which buy in smaller lots and face price-sensitive customers, have less room to do the same.
Demand destruction is the risk to watch
The first signs of consumer pushback are already in forecasts. On 1 July TrendForce said it expects global notebook shipments to fall 13.6% in 2026, with Apple at about 23.1 million units, as higher prices lead consumers to postpone upgrades in the second half [10]. First-half shipments had exceeded expectations thanks to improved CPU supply and strong MacBook Neo sales, which makes the expected second-half slowdown a direct read on price sensitivity [10]. It added that "higher MacBook prices may narrow the price overlap between MacBooks and certain premium Windows notebooks" [10], although those Windows machines draw on the same constrained memory supply.
For investors and buyers, the pattern of the past week suggests three things to track. First, whether other device makers follow Apple and Microsoft with list-price increases, or absorb costs by cutting memory specifications as TrendForce reports some OEMs are already doing [5]. Second, how much of Micron's guided revenue is underpinned by long-term contracts rather than spot pricing, which would determine how quickly earnings fall if AI demand cools. Third, how quickly Korea's fab plans move from announcement to construction permits and equipment orders.
None of these will resolve in 2026. On current evidence the memory market is being priced for AI data-centre demand, and device buyers are paying the difference.
Sources
[1] Apple raises Mac and iPad prices, spares iPhone for now — TechCrunch, 25 Jun 2026
[2] Xbox follows Apple with price increases — TechCrunch, 25 Jun 2026
[3] As Tim Cook steps down, Apple hit record sales, but a chip shortage looms — TechCrunch, 30 Apr 2026
[4] Contract Prices Surged More Than 100% in 1H26; Structural Shortages to Keep NOR Flash and SLC NAND Prices Rising in 2H26, Says TrendForce — TrendForce, 16 Jun 2026
[5] Consumer DRAM Shortages Extend to DDR2 Products with Contract Prices Expected to Continue Rising in 3Q26 — TrendForce, 22 Jun 2026
[6] AI Component Capacity Squeeze and Foundry Output Cuts to Extend Mature-Node Price Increases in 2027, Says TrendForce — TrendForce, 30 Jun 2026
[7] Why Wall Street thinks US memory maker Micron is the next Nvidia — TechCrunch, 28 Jun 2026
[8] South Korean tech giants commit over $550B to ease 'RAMageddon' — TechCrunch, 29 Jun 2026
[9] Anthropic is discussing a new custom chip with Samsung — TechCrunch, 2 Jul 2026
[10] Apple's Across-the-Board Price Increases Add Uncertainty to Consumer Demand; Global Notebook Shipments Forecast to Decline 13.6% in 2026, Says TrendForce — TrendForce, 1 Jul 2026